Spell-Success-Chance (and how to improve it)

LucoireLucoire Posts: 396 ✭✭✭✭
in Tips & Tricks #1 latest comment 05 August, 2019, 06:00 pm.

I've created a Spreadsheet that allows you to compute your chances :)


To explain a bit what's happening:

  • Each and every Encounter has a "base" chance of being caught.
  • That chance is firstly increased by a factor that corresponds with your level.
  • It is further increased by the type of potion you use.
  • And last (but not least) it is improved by your skill in casting.

Hint: Your chance of "success" can be over 100%

Share: @Craeft, @Osprey1



  • CraeftCraeft Posts: 997 ✭✭✭✭✭
    #202 August, 2019, 06:06 pm.


    Made a copy so I can play with it a bit later. :)

  • AuroraKadavraAuroraKadavra Posts: 745 ✭✭✭✭✭
    #303 August, 2019, 01:50 am.

    Thanks for the share on this, a good idea for data capture. Only thing is that we can still only use it as a rough guideline because of the 'randomness' of the game at times?

    Ive hit from low to high level threats with 3 greats in a row, even a masterful then can get annoyed & end up with a low fair cast & it gets it!

    I've been wondering do the casts sort of 'stack' in a way, or is it just sometimed completely random as to which cast gets it. Ive had a high threat, my finger slip & do a low fair- cursing myself- but it gets it!! Then hit top of great each time with a low/medium threat & it takes 5 casts!

    So id love a chart like this to work from if there were a high chance the date correlates- but im finding success in casting can be sooo random!? Anyone else finding that it's really spurious?

  • WerewolfChaserWerewolfChaser Posts: 436 ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 3 #403 August, 2019, 03:34 am.

    I doubt casts stacking. When I'm casting I tell myself that they do but I seriously doubt it.

    @Lucoire Great work.

  • DigitalisDigitalis Posts: 185 ✭✭✭
    #503 August, 2019, 04:16 am.

    i read somewhere that level of cast (fair, good, great, masterful) only modifies how much experience you get for the capture - has nothing to do with whether you capture or not.

    forget where i read it.

    each failed cast or successful cast that does not catch makes it harder to catch - watch the colors on the bar at the top of the screen. after each fail to catch cast the bar gets less green and more of the next color up in difficulty filling from the left.

  • LucoireLucoire Posts: 396 ✭✭✭✭
    #603 August, 2019, 06:13 pm.

    I can't confirm what you describe, @Digitalis. Regardless of how many consecutive spells I cast, the color of the bar at the top of the screen does NOT change.

    There is something that you might be correct about though. The number of consecutive non-successful casts might increase the chance of the Encounter to flee. I have no evidence to confirm or deny that theory though

  • Herm10neG92Herm10neG92 Posts: 194 ✭✭✭
    #703 August, 2019, 07:26 pm.

    @Digitalis I have also noticed the bar changing depending on consecutive successful casts.

    Don’t mind @Lucoire here. He seems to have an issue with others making observations or suggestions and reporting them.

    @Lucoire Not sure why you felt the need to say “there is something you might be correct about though”, as if his observation is not factual or correct simply because it wasn’t your experience. Spoiler alert- not everyone has the same experience as you do with this game and you aren’t the king of the forums. Stop talking down to people, please and thank you.

  • LucoireLucoire Posts: 396 ✭✭✭✭
    #803 August, 2019, 10:03 pm.

    I've been thinking about your words, @Herm10neG92, and I'm somewhat perplexed by your condescending and passive-agressive outbreak.

    To inform you, I haven't "reported" anyone in this forum yet - unlike you, as it seems. So far, this particular thread has been about observations and confirmed theories. What @Digitalis mentioned contradicts both my observation and already confirmed theories from reddit, so I had thought it helpful to make him aware of it.

    If you have been offended by my choice of words, I'd like to apologize. English is a foreign language to me and I somewhat struggle expressing the fine difference between musings, hypotheses, observations, facts and confirmed theories.

    I also am somewhat unsure what to think of your stalking nature... given that you seem to have commented on all the threads I recently commented on, "talking down on me"... which (ironicly) is something you asked me not to do. Is that a form of reverse psychology that I don't quite understand?

  • Herm10neG92Herm10neG92 Posts: 194 ✭✭✭
    #903 August, 2019, 10:21 pm.

    @Lucoire Please don’t flatter yourself to presume that I am “stalking” you, I simply navigated to the same posts because I spend a good bit of time reading the forums and notice when there is a thread with a new comment. Each time today I opened a thread hoping to read some new information about the game, I was met with yet another condescending and elitist comment from you.

    On multiple occasions you have been rude to others on various threads. For example, comments like “if x is affecting you this much, you’re too low level” , calling people a “mere wizard’s apprentice” , repeatedly telling people whose levels you aren’t actually aware of that they are “low level”, etc.

    All of these comments are dismissive and frankly very rude. Your comments come across as very aggressive and your attitude has been noted by more than just myself. You can feign innocence all you like, but your tone and delivery is extremely pointed and harsh. This is something acquired through practice.

    I pick up on patterns. If you had made one offhand snide comment it might have been dismissed, however you appear to have made a practice of lecturing other players on the game.

  • CraeftCraeft Posts: 997 ✭✭✭✭✭
    #1003 August, 2019, 10:28 pm.

    @Lucoire - Your posts do come off a little abrasive sometimes. There have been a few times where I thought, "Why is this person talking down to me?". I don't know if you intend it to be that way (In fact, I don't think you do, to be honest or I'd have spoken up more) but they do. I forgot what it was but it was the first time you ever commented on one of my posts and I was actually thinking it was a bit condescending then as well.

    With that out of the way, however... you have been very helpful in these forums and I (and others, I'm sure) really appreciate that. It's not so much the info you provide but the way in which it's delivered. I disagree with you on some things you've stated but typically try to discuss it rather than argue it. Many times, your responses come off as "arguing".

    As both of us being common users on these forums and as someone who does appreciate your input whether I agree with it or not, I want to thank you for the above comment (and for the apology to me in another thread).

    What I would like to see (personally) is that you take things like that into account moving forward and that everyone involved here take a breath and get back to helping each other before things escalate into the toxicity that is so overbearing in most gaming forums. @Herm10neG92 was not wrong in his/her evaluation but I am also aware of how easy it is to misinterpret someone's intent in a text-based society that is the Internet. It's often why I try really hard to not blast someone online unless they outright deserve it and their negative intent is obvious.

    So... let's all take a breath, help each other out, and understand that everyone is here because they are part of the community, enjoy the game, and want to see the game be better and succeed. Every suggestion I've seen in these forums, whether I agree with it or not, has been to improve the game. And every suggestion stems from each individual's experience. I really love this community. That's rare for me with a gaming community. I'd like to see us grow... not whither into the abyss that is the typical MMO forum.

    So with all that, let's get back to the topic at hand and call this a past and move onto the intent of these forums... community.

  • Herm10neG92Herm10neG92 Posts: 194 ✭✭✭
    #1103 August, 2019, 10:40 pm.

    I completely agree @Craeft. Always the voice of reason.

    I do appreciate all of the helpful information shared in these forums and would simply like for it to remain a respectful arena for discussion. I’m perfectly fine if people disagree with my opinions or suggestions and welcome any debate, so long as it is respectful.

    @Lucoire if you truly did not intend to come across this way, then I do apologize for my mischaracterization. You have always come across as quite well spoken regardless of the perceived attitude I detected, so I would have never guessed English was not your first language. That being said, just watch your tone. I know I have struggled with my tone in written communications in the past and have been grateful when others brought it to my attention so I could remedy it. Like @Craeft, I try to give people the benefit of the doubt, but I saw so many comments of this nature today (in particular one directed at myself) that I was a bit heated. I apologize for being passive aggressive, as you put it. I have limited abilities on the forum since I have so recently actually joined after lurking for a few weeks. May not have been the most mature action on my part.

    I think everyone has the same goal in mind here. Just would appreciate mutual respect in all discussions going forward! Wizards United :)

  • CraeftCraeft Posts: 997 ✭✭✭✭✭
    #1203 August, 2019, 10:53 pm.

    Told my room mate that I was called "The voice of reason". Her face, though.

  • CraeftCraeft Posts: 997 ✭✭✭✭✭
    #1403 August, 2019, 11:06 pm.

    That's good information to have, @Lucoire

    For what it's worth, the English is VERY good despite tone. :)

    But that's good to know so we can take that into account.

  • CraeftCraeft Posts: 997 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 4 #1504 August, 2019, 09:53 pm.

    Today, I had the perfect example of the intent of this thread.

    The Goblet of Fire popped up, a SEVERE threat level. - I got it on the first cast (level of cast: good).

    Then I had a Wanted Poster of an Azkaban Escapee, a LOW threat. Level of cast: Masterful twice, Great once - departed.

  • AuroraKadavraAuroraKadavra Posts: 745 ✭✭✭✭✭
    #1605 August, 2019, 08:16 am.

    Woah! Hadnt seen the rest of this thread til now. I know the bar at the top changes & didnt express myself properly with what i meant by stacking. But anyway, thats all by the by now.

    I realised, thinking about it, that the spreadsheet idea can still work with the 'randomness' of the game on successful catches, like @Craeft has just perfectly highlighted above, if you get enough data over time. So the more data, the more reliable the analysis would be I think, I'm no expert but that seems to make sense. Not sure I'd be able to enjoy the game collecting data like that regularly, but now and then it would be ok & collate over time.

    I'm so glad everything was smoothed out & this really is a wonderful forum for support & has a lighthearted feel where i now personally feel able to ask questions without fear of being made to feel silly for asking. The advice & tips given are amazing! 😊

  • hpwulolahpwulola Posts: 398 admin
    #1705 August, 2019, 06:00 pm.

    Thanks for the lively discussion on this thread and for sharing great insight on casting! Based on the content of the discussion, I will be closing it for future comments. I appreciate your understanding.

This discussion has been closed.