What is the probability of getting a spell book when opening a Treasure Trunk? (Forbidden knowledge)

KasparsKaspars Posts: 7 ✭✭
in General Questions #1 latest comment 04 October, 2021, 04:12 am.

Hi.

I learned the Forbidden knowledge in the SOS skill tree, but have received only 1 Spell book from at least 20 level upgrades in the Dark arts family and opened Treasure Trunks. Is it really that rare to get a spell book or is this a bug?

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Answers

  • KitzenKitzen Posts: 584 ✭✭✭
    #216 August, 2020, 02:28 pm.

    considering that getting trace charm refills from treasure trunks is at about 5%, which is 1 in 20 average, you seem to be getting what i would expect to be the correct amount

  • KasparsKaspars Posts: 7 ✭✭
    #316 August, 2020, 05:32 pm.

    Could be, but for such rare books to invest in this skill, I hoped to see a higher percentage. But I guess if you have all of the skills regarding getting skill books, then it becomes more viable to see the results, but it pains to spend so many DADA books in the beginning for such a small benefit :)

  • TacoTackoTacoTacko Posts: 7 ✭✭
    #417 August, 2020, 10:17 am.

    @Kaspars Have you received any DADA or RSB books from the chests; or just red spell books?

  • AttritionAttrition Posts: 104 ✭✭✭
    #623 August, 2020, 07:25 pm.

    @Erlibobin I'm sorry, but a sample size of 30-35 is too low to be meaningful. I know it's a different skill, but I've been tracking trace charms from trunks, which is also presumed to be about 5%. With nearly 5000 trunks of data recorded, I've seen streaks of over 70, over 90, and one of 109 without a trace charm. This is of course coupled with consecutive trunks sometimes or streaks of single digits. The overall is 5%, but any individual streak can be much higher or lower than 20. You're in a dry spell, and not necessarily a particularly long one. Over time, it should even out.

  • ErlibobinErlibobin Posts: 27 ✭✭
    #723 August, 2020, 07:42 pm.

    As stated - I understand that and it’s why I didnt report it as a bug. I dont need 7000 samples to calculate 0.95^x and know that I can roll 90 times and still have a 0.9% chance of a miss. My comment is an expression of opinion on how the user experience plays out given the amount of time and resources required to obtain the talent. Props to your data analysis efforts in establishing statistically significant sample sizes for proving out odds charts on game awards - I’m requesting the devs to consider turning the dial up a notch or two ;)

  • AttritionAttrition Posts: 104 ✭✭✭
    #823 August, 2020, 09:12 pm.

    @Erlibobin I understand your frustration, and I've actually suggested in a couple of different places that they put caps on both ends to smooth out the experience for the players, but I'm not anticipating that it will go anywhere. I haven't ground out the numbers specifically, but something like a maximum of 40-50 trunks without a reward would automatically create one, and maybe not allowing a reward after getting one until at least 5-6 trunks would help mitigate some of the worst extremes of random without completely eliminating it. The 5% inside the window might need to be tweaked down a bit to make up for an upper cap, but it wouldn't be too difficult to create the experience of generally 5% without also including the wild extremes that occur naturally.

  • ErlibobinErlibobin Posts: 27 ✭✭
    edited August 2020 #923 August, 2020, 09:56 pm.

    @Attrition agreed - was just thinking along the same lines myself - something like 50% on the first chance before it drops to 5% would help me validate that the new talent is functional given how buggy the game is and alleviate my newfound apprehension toward buying any more families or just calling it a wash and saving DADA books for where they can be better applied. I just hit the business end of the spellbook wall and I’ve grabbed the spellbook gift talents where possible at my level so had some built up hope behind this RNG letdown lol. Along the same lines I’d be a lot less worried about 109 attempts for the second book than the first one on the first of ten talent purchases.

  • KasparsKaspars Posts: 7 ✭✭
    edited August 2020 #1028 August, 2020, 08:22 pm.

    I as well think that the drop rate is just too low for the investment.

    For now I have gotten 2 or 3 Red books, but yeah...I am not counting any more how many times I have leveled up.

  • KasparsKaspars Posts: 7 ✭✭
    edited August 2020 #1128 August, 2020, 08:36 pm.

    And just as I complained, I got another Red book :)

  • MASGingerMASGinger Posts: 10 ✭✭
    #1222 October, 2020, 04:18 am.

    I haven’t received any spell books from a school chest after completing False Passage, good to know I’m not the only one.

  • KasparsKaspars Posts: 7 ✭✭
    #1323 October, 2020, 08:45 am.

    @MASGinger you will get the books eventually....it is just quite rare - could be 1 in 20 chests, 5% chance and even then it is only a chance and could take 40 chests or more to open to get a red book

  • BocaGBocaG Posts: 186 ✭✭✭
    #1423 October, 2020, 02:30 pm.

    This will be literally one of the last things I spend the resources to open. I have no desire to fill out any other skill tree, and until such time as they add the second tier to my Magizoo, Red spelbooks are just accumulating. I’m trying to decide what I want to focus on with my dark arts books, and if I want to hold out for the 100 it will take to add gold into the mix.

  • lirsenlirsen Posts: 14 ✭✭
    edited November 2020 #1508 November, 2020, 08:25 pm.

    i got my first of this 46 days ago ( CoMC node) and im still waiting to get my first SB taken that at least i got 1 trunk per day ( when it wasn't more) now i have 3 of this nodes, one 30 days ago ( sports one) and one this tuesday ( oddities, the easiest and quickest to get trunks, the same day i got 20 levels ) and like always 0 SB even having at least 1 level of each family per day

  • Bayger91BLMBayger91BLM Posts: 18 ✭✭
    #1615 December, 2020, 10:10 pm.

    Oh @BocaG , you lucky duck, you! I pursued (and completed) a second tree and have to grind all over again to get all the red spell books needed for adversary combat tree(s) 🤦🏽‍♀️

    I’m kinda hoping they can work out an algorithm that increases the 5% chance of RSB from trunks if you have completed 2+ professions.

    @Attrition @Erlibobin thoughts?

  • BenTigerBenTiger Posts: 603 ✭✭✭✭✭
    #1716 December, 2020, 07:11 am.

    @Bayger91BLM There is a 0% chance to get RSB. You get regular spell books, only. RSB is Restricted Spell Book, not red.

  • Bayger91BLMBayger91BLM Posts: 18 ✭✭
    #1816 December, 2020, 03:09 pm.

    @BenTiger right. That’s what I meant. Sorry for the incorrect abbreviation. I am only talking about red spell books.

    I’m just hoping for an increased chance of getting red spell books from trunks if you have maxed out 2 professions.

  • Strider86Strider86 Posts: 29 ✭✭
    #1916 December, 2020, 06:00 pm.

    The first thing I spent DADA books on was false passage, I've had no spell books from it since. There is literally no point wasting books on these skills.

  • Eleanor001Eleanor001 Posts: 103 ✭✭
    #2016 December, 2020, 06:37 pm.

    Lucky you! Atleast you've got one, I unlocked a similar one for the Hogwarts School page and I still haven't recieved a single spell book. It requires around 20-22 DADA books I guess? I never unlocked any other family node of this kind

  • AttritionAttrition Posts: 104 ✭✭✭
    #2117 December, 2020, 01:05 am.

    @Bayger91BLM @Erlibobin This is still too small a data set to be give anything conclusive, but I've opened 364 trunks that have been empowered by one of these SOS abilities, and I've received 13 Spell Books, which is a just a smidge over 3.5%.


    I was closer to the 1-2% range for quite awhile, but a lucky streak bumped me up to 4%, and it has settled to its current position of 3.5%.


    With only 364 trunks, that could come up to the expect 5%, but it may also fall back to the 1-2%. Regardless, I'm ready to conclude that, at 20 DADA books apiece, these skills are complete junk at the current percentage. It's much better to spend the DADA in better places and just do fortresses and events for a much higher Spell Book return.

  • Ivan66Ivan66 Posts: 5 ✭✭
    #2201 January, 2021, 09:19 am.

    Same here. I spent 40 red books to unlock Ministry & Hogwarts and have yet to receive a single book. I stopped counting at 20 chests each and won’t waste another book on this skill. I can put my red books to better use & see results from my investment elsewhere.

  • PangarbanPangarban Posts: 26 ✭✭
    #2301 January, 2021, 01:24 pm.

    It's funny how things change! A month ago I had a surplus of red spell books and DADA books were as rare as hen's teeth. Investment in the spellbook lessons seemed like a total wasted.

    Now with adversaries, I'm short of red books but have a regular source of DADA books. I started to invest in these lessons and have unlocked all but two of them.

  • MyDudeEluMyDudeElu Posts: 11 ✭✭
    #2404 October, 2021, 04:12 am.

    I have not received 1 and have all but the dark arts trunk unlocked. I am level 37. The letter from the public you think would get Niantic doing something. Even with over 100 documented errors I have but the best I got was, to graciously overestimate, 25% of what I could get daily in wizard to wizard gifts. Niantic dropped the ball and does not care about their players. Which is very clear. There are 4 pages of bugs they will not address and I had a case of at least a page worth of bugs already documented upon starting. I think they are like any other app and want a pay to play experience and other than that you get what you got. If there's a developer on the payroll then they're sitting at home collecting a check. Hate Niantic which is a shame, this game could bring GO to it's knees if it worked. Only bug in GO is that it never itemized my gifts to give so I look like a sleazy player.... Many more choice words but with them being based in the US there might be a center chance to gain effort towards them than countries overseas. We'll see. Until then I will continue to press in my uncontrollable habit with them. Good luck to you all. Just go for oddities for books, your choice to prestige or not. Prior to prestigious pages I had 100s of books, now I climb from 0 watching my collections. The only earners being "unfathomably" rare much like my assumption of 0.00005% chance for a book with a RNG. Never received 1 ever and doubt I will. It'd be like gaining kilometers on an android. Glad I didn't incorporate my business with them as I was going to apply. Then they'd have a spot on the other side of the lake that's has low traffic, speed, no drive through, and CCTV for any issue. I just have to continue until I hear what can be done which will have to be handled by a firm more aggressive than myself on my behalf. That's just me, can you i.agine them giving everyone items based on time and capacity that would only shorten their bottom line for a second, while making millions already and representing a billionaire's license. Disgusting company.

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